Out in Left-Centre Field

Once again, I have been lax in updating my blog. I will do my best to make that change, but my ongoing full-time co-op job in Toronto is making that difficult, for now. Paradoxically, I seem to have so much more time on school terms ...

Yes, these are old news, but since I kinda promised to see about my prediction vs. the actual results, let's see how I fared against the fickle or not-so-fickle voters of four election-weary ridings from across the country!

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Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley

Last time out in 2008: independent Bill Casey (69.0%) beat the NDP (12.3%), Conservatives (8.8%), Liberals (8.5%) and another independent (1.4%)
The battle here: Conservatives vs. NDP (and possibly Liberals)
Prediction: solid Conservative win but not a landslide, probably a 10-15% margin of victory; Harper has some explaining to do if this doesn’t go in his party’s favour.

So what happened? Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong, with 45.8%, bested the NDP (25.7%), Liberals (21.3%), Greens (3.3%), Christian Heritage Party (3.2%), and an independent (0.6%). Apparently, most of Casey's support WAS from conservative voters, quelle surprise -- but Dexter's provincial win does appear to have given his federal NDP counterparts a boost in the province; whether that actually translates into additional seats for them in the province (say, South Shore--St. Margaret's, for instance) remains to be seen. So, a solid Conservative win by a margin of 20%.

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Hochelaga

Last time out in 2008: Réal Ménard of the Bloc (49.7%) beat the Liberals (20.7%), NDP (14.4%), Conservatives (9.2%), Greens (4.3%) and four other candidates (1.7%)
The battle here: Bloc vs. NDP (and possibly Liberals)
Prediction: solid Bloc hold; probably about a 20% margin of victory; Duceppe has some explaining to do if the Bloc loses this one.

So what happened? The Bloc's Daniel Paillé (51.2%) decisively beat the NDP (19.5%), Liberals (14.3%), Conservatives (10.2%), Greens (3.3%), Neorhinos (0.7%), Marxist-Leninists (0.5%), and an independent (0.4%). Not much doubt here; the Bloc dominated Hochelaga, as one might expect, with an over 30% margin of victory. The NDP did beat out the Liberals for second, but it's a pretty distant one.

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Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

Last time out in 2008: Paul Crête of the Bloc (46.0%) beat the Conservatives (30.6%), Liberals (15.4%), NDP (5.5%), Greens (2.2%) and CHP (0.3%)
The battle here: Bloc vs. Conservatives
Prediction: reduced but still clear Bloc win, margin of victory about 5-10%.

So what happened? Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux (42.7%) beat the Bloc (37.7%), Liberals (13.2%), NDP (4.8%), and Greens (1.7%) to shift the seat from the Bloc to the governing Conservatives. Same margin of victory as I thought, but the other way around; apparently, the Bloc candidate really was weak, or the Conservative candidate really was very popular, or both. This one should be a real battleground in the next federal election, whenever it comes; the Bloc, I suspect, will really want this seat back. Above all, I'm sure Harper is pleased beyond belief to have some positive signs in Quebec, even if he is loathed in Montreal and the southern half of the province.

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New Westminster—Coquitlam

Last time out in 2008: Dawn Black of the NDP (41.8%) beat the Conservatives (38.8%), Liberals (11.3%), Greens (7.2%), and two other candidates (0.8%)
The battle here: NDP vs. Conservatives
Prediction: slim NDP hold, with the margin of victory likely to be less than 5%; Layton will be on the hot seat in a big way if the NDP fails to win this riding or any of the other less-likely contests.

So what happened? New Democratic candidate Fin Donnelly (49.6%) took down the Conservatives (35.8%), Liberals (10.3%), and Greens (4.3%). That's a way more solid win than I was predicting, closer to 15% than to 5% in terms of the margin of victory. Maybe the HST is dragging down Harper and the Tories in BC; maybe it's just the "by-election effect" (sending a message). At any rate, this bodes well for the NDP in this riding, and maybe in BC as a whole; the Liberals languished in a distant third (oddly, for an urban area), while the Greens cannot be happy with their candidate's showing, given their usual teens-level support in British Columbia. If this Green downdraft is typical, it could spell trouble for Elizabeth May in Saanich--Gulf Islands; here's hoping it doesn't.

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Anyways, that's how I see the outcome of those four votes. Above all, though, and most importantly, the residents of those four ridings finally have representation once again. That's the most crucial fact; it's infuriating how long Harper drags it out before calling by-elections, while at the same time swiftly filling Senate vacancies with hypocritical glee. These people deserve representation in the Commons, and now, finally, they have it once again.

My best wishes to the four new MPs as they take on their new responsibilities in Ottawa!

- Adam